This isn’t just a regular set of local elections.

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One in seven Labour MPs has a constituency in London. And London only elects councillors every four years. England’s second city, Birmingham, also has all-out elections, while the next biggest - Manchester and Leeds - are electing a third of their councillors each.

Labour’s support has always been disproportionately urban. If, as seems likely, the party has had its worst set of results across England’s biggest cities in decades - possibly a century - that’s a disaster for Starmer.

And that’s just the start of the story.

Labour currently has 21 MPs in Wales, and 37 in Scotland - collectively, another one in seven of their seats. If, as expected, it has been hammered in both countries, losing the latter for the first time in a century, then this isn’t........

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