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Recovery Has Begun, but Progress May Slow

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The recovery has started. Third-quarter GDP should rise 18% or so at an annual rate. But a sustained rebound will depend on continued progress against the novel coronavirus. Fortunately, infection rates appear to be declining in states that had experienced a summer surge, and previous progress in Northeastern and Midwestern states appears to be holding for now. However, there is the uncertainty of whether and when Congress will pass another economic stimulus bill, plus the drag from reductions in extra unemployment benefits and from........

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