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By 2022, the Quebec economy was emerging from a pandemic-induced slowdown and performing to its full potential. From this point of view, 2023 was more of a mixed bag. At the time of writing, statistical data revealed that Quebec’s real GDP had contracted for a second consecutive quarter.
In purely technical terms, by traditional definition, this means Quebec is entering a recession. However, Quebec Finance Minister Eric Girard was quick to point out that this is not the case “since the decline in economic activity is not widespread.” A number of economists have also qualified the notion of recession, pointing to the resilience of the labour market and domestic demand.
Be that as it may, the most recent analysis by the Chaire de recherche en fiscalité et en finances publiques indicates that the Quebec economy will operate below potential in 2024.
Despite these downward growth forecasts, it seems too early to call for additional government intervention (such as new lump sums). It’s better to await the effects of any reductions in the Bank of Canada’s key interest rate. One thing is certain, however: governments at........