Trump's next move will reshape the Middle East |
The Islamic Republic of Iran has survived a decades-long siege since the overthrow of the Shah in 1979, but today its enemies at home and abroad look stronger than ever while its support has shrunk to its lowest level ever.
Yet, so long as the Iranian authorities keep control of the streets by killing protesters and the security forces suffer no significant defections, they should be able to withstand the pressure. But they have few policy options beyond a reliance on brute force.
The present bloodbath in the streets has been devastating, with the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency saying that at least 544 people have been killed so far, including 496 protesters and 48 people from the security forces. It believes that more than 10,600 people have been arrested over the two weeks of protests.
Anti-government mass protests have taken place before in 2009, 2019, 2021 and 2022 but have been crushed or fizzled out. This time around, however, they include Iranians previously supportive of the theocratic government. The spark igniting the present wave of protests came when the economy, weakened by sanctions, took another lurch downwards on 28 December as the Iranian currency, the ryal, reached its lowest level ever against the US dollar.
Bazaar merchants, a crucial component of the coalition that overthrew the Shah, have become increasingly alienated over the last 20 years. They joined the protests, posting videos of their closed shops. People in poorer districts in cities and towns across Iran also appear to be joining in the protests, though an internet blackout and partisan postings make the extent of this impossible to judge.........