As the Israeli security cabinet authorises air strikes on Iran, Israel’s war aims are broadening and include the risk of a regional war against Iran in order to radically reshape the political landscape of the Middle East in Israel’s favour.
This ambitious, even fantastical, goal is fraught with danger for the region and the world. Israel cannot achieve it without the full and undisguised backing of the US. Despite President Joe Biden’s claim that he has fruitlessly urged a ceasefire on Benjamin Netanyahu, he has subsequently always endorsed every Israeli escalation. It is reasonable for Israel to conclude that it can attack Iran with impunity, since, if anything goes wrong, it will have the backing of the US armed forces.
Historians may one day reach a conclusion about how far the Israeli tail is wagging the American dog, taking advantage of Biden’s feebleness to lure the US into another reckless military adventure in the Middle East.
It is too easy to blame America’s feckless and ineffectual diplomacy on Biden’s cognitive decline over the past three years. But, if it is not Biden, it is unclear who are the real decision-makers in the White House and the upper reaches of the administration.
Judging the White House by its actions rather than its words, it sees a geopolitical advantage in defeating Iran – an ally of Russia and China, albeit a distant one – and its allies.
Wishful thinking probably plays a role. Israel has been far more successful in killing Hezbollah leaders and mid-level commanders than had been expected, so might not an aggressive attack on Iran and its “Axis of Resistance” produce similar victories?
It is an alluring prospect, although US military interventions – from Somalia in 1992/93 to Afghanistan in 2001 and Iraq in 2003 – failed in large measure because of hubris and underestimating the enemy.
Israel’s track record is somewhat similar when it comes to arrogantly overplaying its hand in the West Bank after defeating Egypt and Syria in 1967, and invading Lebanon in 1982. Yet decades later the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) are still fighting in both places.
These historic analogies are often cited by Western commentators as ominous warnings about what can go dreadfully wrong for the US and Israel when they rely solely on force. Yet, the comparisons are a little misleading as the political landscape, both in Israeli domestic politics and the region as a whole, has been transformed in the past 20 years. It is these changes that make the present crisis far more dangerous than its predecessors.
The Israeli government formed by Netanyahu after winning the general election in November 2021 was immediately recognised as being the most fanatically right-wing and ultra-nationalist in Israel’s history.
To give but one example, Itamar Ben-Gvir, the leader of the Jewish Power party,........