Yesterday, there was a moment of cross-party unity as politicians marked the one-year anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer both observed the minute’s silence. The support that Britain has offered is one of the few areas on which Labour and the Tories agree.
Yet scratch the surface and the same cannot be said for the conversation within the Tory party. A row on defence risks becoming a flashpoint for Sunak’s premiership.
The Prime Minister is under pressure from his own side to go further and faster in providing support for Ukraine and to find extra funds for the Ministry of Defence. It speaks to the level of unease that it is becoming normal for a ministerial broadcast round to feed – rather than calm – reports of Tory rift on the subject.
When Penny Mordaunt used the ministerial round last Sunday to suggest that additional spending on defence was likely as “we have a duty to the nation to fund our armed forces properly”, the comments were met with eye-rolls in No 10 and No 11. “This isn’t the time for speculation,” says one aide. A spending boost is still possible come the Budget on 15 March – but given that nothing is confirmed, nor the amount, both Hunt and Sunak are at pains to downplay expectations.
Even defence hawks are clashing. This week, the Defence Secretary, Ben Wallace, rebuked the veterans minister, Johnny Mercer, as “junior” after he dared to suggest it was not “credible” for Wallace to suggest that the Army was being “hollowed out”.
Relations between the Treasury and MoD grow increasingly bad-tempered – with figures in No 11 accusing the MoD of having a history of budgeting issues. “It’s all getting rather spicy and there’s still three weeks until the Budget,” says one former Cabinet minister.
Government aides fear there is a carefully orchestrated campaign to put pressure on Sunak to find new funds at a time when the Government is urging the need for restraint on public sector pay.
Sunak is being squeezed on two issues. The first is in the immediate handling of British support for Ukraine. In Downing Street, there is a desire to show that Sunak can be as strong a friend to Ukraine as Boris Johnson was. President Zelensky’s trip to the UK was seen as an important step to doing so.
Yet in Ukraine, Johnson remains the bigger name – and the one with streets named after him. “It’s a charisma thing,” says a Ukrainian journalist. “But if Sunak sends fighter jets, that could change.”
Already Sunak’s predecessors – in the form of Johnson and Liz Truss – are getting out in front. Both used a debate in the House of Commons this week to call for Sunak to send the planes. The interventions are an irritant in No 10 – but not unexpected. Johnson views one of his legacies as the UK being a leader in support.
If Johnson focused all his efforts on this, there might even be some relief in Downing Street – but instead there are concerns it is part of a wider effort to rehabilitate with voters and the membership ahead of an attempted comeback.
Liz Truss lasted longer as foreign secretary than as prime minister. Allies of Truss say that her views remain the same on defence and the need to call out aggressors. It means Sunak could face further interventions if the update to the integrated review is too soft on China and in the Budget if little new funds are offered. Truss has called for defence spending to increase to three per cent of GDP.
“Defence is an issue that really matters to Liz,” says an ally of the former prime minister.
That applies to the bulk of the Tory party. The problem for Sunak is that there is every incentive for an MP or ambitious minister to speak out on these issues. Not only do many feel passionate about the subject at a time when the UK – and world – are facing new threats, it’s also something that plays very well with the Tory grassroots. “No Tory member is going to take against a politician who wants to boost defence,” says one party old hand.
While Hunt and Sunak have said they will stick to at least 2 per cent of GDP for defence, there are plenty of MPs – including Wallace – who would like them to go further. Wallace does not believe 3 per cent is required necessarily – instead it is about future proofing. Defence figures point to inflation, the damage from the fall of the pound during the Truss era (much of what the MoD needs has to be bought in dollars) and the continued cost of supporting Ukraine.
There are real concerns among veterans that the UK army will be depleted and unfit for purpose if support for Ukraine continues with no new help from the Government.
As talks between the two sides continue – “a compromise is needed”, says one privy to the discussions – an argument being made is that the Army has stepped in during the pandemic, on migration, and to backfill during the strikes. When the state is increasingly relying on the Army, it is hard for the Chancellor to turn around and say they need to be more efficient.
At a time when the Prime Minister risks the wrath of the right of his party on the Northern Irish Protocol and small boat refugees, disappointing the party in the Budget ahead of tricky local elections is risky.
Sunak needs to move off the defensive fast.
Katy Balls is the political editor of The Spectator magazine
Tory tempers flare over internal disagreement on support for Ukraine
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25.02.2023
Yesterday, there was a moment of cross-party unity as politicians marked the one-year anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer both observed the minute’s silence. The support that Britain has offered is one of the few areas on which Labour and the Tories agree.
Yet scratch the surface and the same cannot be said for the conversation within the Tory party. A row on defence risks becoming a flashpoint for Sunak’s premiership.
The Prime Minister is under pressure from his own side to go further and faster in providing support for Ukraine and to find extra funds for the Ministry of Defence. It speaks to the level of unease that it is becoming normal for a ministerial broadcast round to feed – rather than calm – reports of Tory rift on the subject.
When Penny Mordaunt used the ministerial round last Sunday to suggest that additional spending on defence was likely as “we have a duty to the nation to fund our armed forces properly”, the comments were met with eye-rolls in No 10 and No 11. “This isn’t the time for speculation,” says one aide. A spending boost is still possible come the Budget on 15 March – but given that nothing is confirmed, nor the amount, both Hunt and Sunak are at pains to downplay expectations.
Even defence hawks are clashing. This week,........
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