Inflation is coming down, with the Consumer Price Index at 3.2 per cent, and that’s good. It will come down further this summer, probably to the Bank of England target of 2 per cent. That will certainly lead to a cut in interest rates, as the Bank Governor, Andrew Bailey, confirmed on Wednesday.

But do not expect rates to come down by much. That will be a relief for savers, and particularly for elderly people who rely on those savings to bump up their pensions. But relatively high interest rates will be a continuing burden for the young trying to buy their first homes, and indeed save for their own pensions too.

To many people, this will seem unfair. If inflation gets back to 2 per cent and the Bank makes only tiny cuts to rates, that will upset a lot of people. So why is this likely to happen?

Inflation is a strange old beast, and even central banks – not just in the UK but in America and Europe – got it very wrong. They badly missed the warnings a couple of years ago that it would shoot out of control. But right now it is helpful to see it as having two faces – what is happening to price of goods and what is happening........

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