Furious Putin is trapped in a gilded cage. Only death will free him |
What does Putin do next? Welcome to The i Paper’s opinion series in which our writers and experts take a deeper look at the future for the Russian leader.
• Putin is getting more desperate. It won’t end well
When protesters staged the largest ever demonstrations of post-Soviet times in 2011-12, “Russia without Putin” was one of their favourite slogans. Fourteen years later, he’s still there. In theory, Putin can stay in office until 2036, when he will be 84. Can he? Does he want to?
Retirements have not really been a part of Russia’s history. Monarchs might be assassinated, like the reformist Alexander II, but as the last tsar, Nicholas II found when he abdicated, trying to pass the crown to his younger brother Michael, a legitimacy founded on divine right is not something you can pass around the family.
Soviet leaders essentially “retired” through death or ill-health, apart from Nikita Khrushchev, ousted by a political coup in 1964, or Mikhail Gorbachev, who voluntarily ceded power when he dissolved the USSR in 1991.
Boris Yeltsin, post-Soviet Russia’s first leader, did retire. In a carefully-choreographed operation at the end of 1999, his chosen successor was made prime minister, so when Yeltsin stood down, he became acting president and could stand for election with the advantage of incumbency. Of course, this was a gamble, relying on the gratitude and loyalty of the new president to look after his predecessor and his cronies.
That successor was one Vladimir Putin, and in fairness, he did hold up his part of the bargain.........