This is Kemi Badenoch's moment of truth |
If Robert Jenrick had defected to Reform just a few months ago, the aftermath would have been dominated by a debate over whether the Conservative Party was finished. He was the most effective member of the Shadow Cabinet and the heir presumptive for the party leadership. A vacancy for that post was expected by the following summer. Kemi Badenoch looked unlikely to survive a mauling in the May elections. For someone who had the position of leader of the opposition within his grasp to walk away from the Tories would have been, at best, a humiliation. At worst, it would have been a fatal blow.
We are not in that situation today. Badenoch’s performances and poll ratings have noticeably improved. The May election results will still be dreadful for the Tories, but it will not precipitate a leadership crisis. Up until the autumn, Jenrick had been hyperactive; since the party conference in October he has been subdued. The public’s interest shifted away from immigration towards the economy which coincided with a similar change of emphasis by the Tories. The Newark MP was in a less central position in the national debate.
We now know that throughout this time, he was in discussion with Reform about defecting. Nor did he go to great lengths to conceal the courtship. If one wanted a clandestine meeting with Nigel Farage, the private members’ club 5 Hertford Street would not be the venue of choice. But the pair met there on at least two occasions. Evidently, Jenrick did little to hide his intentions from his staff.
This resulted in a further reason why the defection was not quite the moment it might have been. Badenoch learned of the plan and executed an impeccable spoiling operation, putting both Jenrick and Reform on the back foot. What might have been the worst day of her leadership ended with her reputation enhanced. In contrast, Jenrick looked duplicitous and incompetent.
One should not, however, get carried away. Losing a prominent member of one’s frontbench team, let alone the leader of a substantial faction of the wider party, is rarely good news. There were Conservatives who were staying in the party in the hope that Jenrick, who was shadow justice secretary, would at some point assume the leadership. They may........