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Who trusts opinion polls any more? I do

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One of the joys of Twitter is the predictability of the responses whenever I post an opinion poll. “You don’t still believe polls any more, do you,” I am asked. Well, yes, actually, I do.

You have to interpret them with care, but they are better than any other way of judging public opinion. Voting intention polls do not tell us much at the moment about what would happen if there were an early general election, because that would depend so much on when such an election would be and why it was called.

But they still tell us a great deal about the state of politics at the moment, and the way that Brexit has realigned voter loyalties. At the last election, Britain reverted rather sharply to the old two-party politics model, with the Conservatives and Labour each taking more than 40 per cent of the vote.

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Now, we are suddenly in a four-and-a-half-party system, with the Leave side of........

© Independent