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What if Boris Johnson made a success of Brexit?

3 30 0
27.07.2019

So far, I have said that Boris Johnson is likely to be heading for disaster. He seems unlikely to get a Brexit deal through parliament, and parliament is unlikely to allow him to take Britain out of the EU without a deal.

Thus he seems to be heading for a “people against parliament” election, in which he asks the people for a mandate for his Brexit, saying he has been blocked by MPs. Who knows what would happen then, but such an election would take place against the background of Johnson’s failure to deliver the one thing he has staked his premiership on: leaving by 31 October.

But what if Johnson succeeds? The betting market thinks there is a 64 per cent chance that we will still be in the EU on 1 November. But that means there is a 36 per cent chance that we will be out, so any futurologist worth their salt ought to be able to set out how that might happen.

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In the absence of ready-salted futurologists, allow me to try. There are two routes to leaving by the end of October: with a deal, or without one. In the first case, Johnson has to overwhelm either the EU or the UK parliament, or both, to get a deal........

© Independent