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What to look out for in Tuesday's primaries — and what to ignore

1 37 1
09.03.2020

The past two weeks have certainly been some of the most remarkable in primary election history. Two weeks ago, Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) was the frontrunner of the Democratic primary and fresh off a massive win in the Nevada caucuses. Democrats had failed to coalesce around a moderate alternative to the self-proclaimed democratic socialist, and the media narrative was that Bernie Sanders was inevitable.

How times have changed.

Ten days ago, former vice president Joe Biden had never won a single primary race in the three times he'd run for the Democratic nomination. He's since won the South Carolina primary by 30 points, 10 of the 14 Super Tuesday states, and now has a 93 per cent chance of winning the Democratic nomination, according to FiveThirtyEight's forecast model. As tomorrow's primaries are set to kick off in Michigan, Washington, Missouri, Mississippi, Idaho, and North Dakota, we need to look at how we got here to understand what impact those states will have on the race.

Sharing the full story, not just the headlines

What we saw in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada was multiple moderate candidates splitting the vote while less progressive-minded voters failed to coalesce around a single person. Black voters in South Carolina essentially said, "Fine, we'll do it for you." In doing so, they played their continuing role as the compass of the modern Democratic Party, choosing who they thought would be best suited to........

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