Tapping votes: Smithson disputes polls in surprise early call on state election

A “golden asset” leader taking the Liberal reins and a “horribly wrong” move by the state Labor team. One of the state’s most experienced political reporters Mike Smithson recalculates how he thinks seats will fall in the looming state election.

Various public opinion polls show the Liberal Party copping an absolute pasting at the state election which is now within a fortnight.

I still can’t see any winning streak for the Hurn-led Libs, but I can see green shoots emerging.

I’ve now adjusted and fine-tuned my result prediction based on election experience, incumbency, gut feel and an adage which was echoed by former Liberal Prime Minister, and wily politician, John Winston Howard.

“Nothing is ever as good or as bad as it seems.”

Labor’s been justifiably dented this week by a bungled email scandal trying to discredit a grieving widow who went public over ambulance ramping.

Her terminally ill husband died in the RAH after waiting outside for more than an hour.

Labor got it horribly wrong by distributing a glowing 2023 email over health care from a person they thought was Stephen King her husband, but it was another person with the same name.

It was a grubby tactic dressed up as showing “total transparency” to the media but has damaged Labor’s brand.

The Liberals, by their own accounts, have been told they’ll plummet to as few as three out of 47 seats in the House of Assembly where government is formed.

That dire polling eventually led to Vincent Tarzia falling on his sword as leader.

They currently hold 13 seats compared to Labor’s 29 with four independents and one vacant seat, due to the jailing of an MP.

For what it’s worth, here’s my updated prediction, which is subject to a hefty margin of error, but I’ll stick with it.

For the past month I’ve said the Liberals will emerge from the election with eight seats, rather than the zero,........

© InDaily