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Immigration, emigration and secular stagnation

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11.07.2019

Commentary. Although the idea of secular stagnation is probably a good snapshot of the current economic situation, foreshadowing further developments, interpretations of the crisis have so far ignored a fundamental issue: namely, demographics.

written by Roberto Romano

Topic Italy

July 11, 2019

The current political thinking on immigration at the national level is not able to handle the complexities underlying the phenomenon. In fact, migration policies (both regarding immigration and emigration) should be talked about in the context of the demographic question and its economic and social implications, which have been recently described as the so-called Secular Stagnation phenomenon.

Although the idea of secular stagnation is probably a good snapshot of the current economic situation, foreshadowing further developments (some economists think we are in the midst of a crisis of the techno-economic paradigm, others have dusted off the notion of the liquidity trap, while yet others are focusing their attention on income distribution), interpretations of the crisis have so far ignored a fundamental issue: namely, demographics.

The latter has devastating implications on how and how much the dynamics of GDP, in conditions of small or nonexistent growth, are changing the nature of the........

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