The Venezuela situation, as seen from Cuba |
The Venezuela situation, as seen from Cuba
The political evolution of the situation in Venezuela is being analyzed in Havana. According to some Cuban experts, this suggests that in Cuba as well, Trump would prefer a “friendly takeover.”
María Corina Machado or Delcy Rodríguez? “Great American values, democracy and freedom” or the security of oil supplies and rare and precious minerals? Free elections or stability? These are the terms of a debate over Venezuela's immediate future that appears to be dividing Donald Trump's administration. From Cuba, this debate is being closely watched, also in an effort to understand the strategy behind the ongoing talks between the US State Department and high-ranking Cuban officials.
On March 31, the Venezuelan party Vente Venezuela released a photo of its leader, Maria Corina Machado, meeting with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. She wore a big smile, while the head of US diplomacy looked almost frowning. And that was no coincidence.
The Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) – the agency that oversees US foreign sanctions – had just decided to lift sanctions against Venezuela's interim president, Delcy Rodríguez. She has reestablished diplomatic relations with the US, replaced the military leadership (accused by the Trump camp of colluding with the Tren de Aragua drug cartel), granted the tycoon de facto control over the sale of Venezuelan crude oil and, together with her brother Jorge, ensured political control and social stability.
These are serious concessions. And in the midst of the Middle East war, they are all the more necessary for the Trump administration. Thus, the roadmap outlined by Rubio after the January 3 attack on Caracas and the kidnapping of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife had stalled halfway.
The first phase – taking out the Maduro government – was deemed mission accomplished. The second – economic stabilization with oil managed by the US and social control implemented by the new military leaders appointed by Rodríguez – is working. The third – free elections and democracy – can wait for better times.
That is why the photo of the Machado-Rubio meeting was released by Machado's camp. For her, it is a matter of political survival, albeit in exile. For Rubio, it is a headache, given that even the CIA and MAGA business leaders are now saying what was already known before: namely, that Chavismo is the only force in Venezuela capable of guaranteeing social cohesion and stability. Meanwhile, Machado's revanchism divides the nation and promises instability. “Independent” surveys confirm that the average Venezuelan citizen is not interested in polarization: they want to live better, with greater purchasing power and in safety, more than they want “free elections.” Machado can stay abroad.
As far as we know, President Trump and US oil companies are happy with the situation and consider Rodríguez a “reliable” politician. Those close to Rubio – and his voters – on the other hand, want a change of government in Caracas and are dissatisfied with the “provisional post-January 3 order” in Venezuela. Hence Rubio's sulking as he asks Machado for time and patience. “Venezuela is in a recovery phase, but it is not yet time for elections,” he stated.
The political evolution of the situation in Venezuela is being analyzed in Havana. According to some Cuban experts, this suggests that in Cuba as well, Trump would prefer a “friendly takeover.” Rubio himself, at least initially, had reiterated that for the island, a roadmap could be drawn up that would first set out structural economic reforms allowing the entry of North American capital to stabilize the economy (under US control) and then consider political change. Hence the rumors that the State Department's preferred interlocutors were not institutional figures like President Miguel Díaz-Canel, but rather individuals closely tied to the island's true political center, Raúl Castro, and who are therefore able to negotiate concessions.
There is uncertainty, however, regarding the possibility of negotiations offering substantial assets to US investors. And thus there is also uncertainty regarding whether Rubio's negotiations might actually follow the Venezuelan model. The two countries show significant differences, particularly regarding the cohesion of Cuba's political leadership, popular support for safeguarding national sovereignty and the fact that Cuba lacks Venezuela's vast natural resources. Consequently, any process of economic stabilization requires very substantial foreign investment.
Rumors have recently been circulating that the Cuban side is putting new and enticing options on the negotiating table – ones that would benefit entrepreneurs from across the Straits of Florida, while also serving Cuba's interests. For North American tourism, this would include a series of completely unspoiled cays, including those in the south, in the stunning Jardines de la Reina archipelago, which were deemed a potential boon for US tourism already before the Revolution. For entrepreneurs, this would include the management of the Mariel complex: the free trade zone and deep-water port inaugurated in 2013 with substantial Brazilian funding, which could prove highly attractive to North American businesses.
Most of the goods arriving in the US from the Pacific are headed for the East Coast, the most industrialized region. Today, rail is the means of transportation of choice for these goods. US ports in the Caribbean, like those on the Atlantic, are largely constrained by laws that prevent the docking of large ships – giants of the Neopanamax class that carry more than 10,000 containers and can transit through the expanded Panama Canal.
Controlling a hub port in the middle of the Caribbean – one capable of receiving the massive container ships that pass through the Panama Canal and ensuring storage (up to three million containers) and transfer to smaller coastal vessels that can dock at both US Caribbean and East Coast ports – could be instrumental to the island's development and a highly attractive proposition for North American investors.
We need to emphasize that this is all speculation that continues to circulate, given the secrecy of the ongoing talks and the determination of Cuba's political leadership to stand firm on the country's sovereignty and independence, and to demonstrate that the Cuban state has by no means failed.
On Wednesday, Prime Minister Manuel Marrero announced the relaunch of the economic plan for 2026: a clear effort to ensure the minimum conditions necessary for the current political and economic system to survive. Furthermore, for the Easter holidays, a mass pardon for more than 2,000 people was decided, though only a minority of them are prisoners of conscience.