In 2020, Trump lost the popular vote by seven million votes, and lost the Electoral College as well, despite his attempts to overturn the result. But amid the deep uncertainty on the eve of the election, the only truly reliable prediction is that no matter what happens, most likely on the night between Tuesday and Wednesday (morning in Italy), as the votes are still being counted, Donald Trump will claim that he won, and he will do so even more forcefully if the projections are not looking favorable to him at the time.

To be sure, a real Trump victory remains a possibility; but the most likely scenario is that we will have to wait perhaps up to a few days before knowing the actual outcome of the vote, especially in the key states where the result might be on a razor’s edge. It is precisely in this scenario that an attempt by Trump to subvert the outcome with a “stolen election” strategy could plausibly happen again.

Not only did Trump's party never admit defeat in 2020 – even though the results were confirmed by every audit and reaffirmed by the courts in 64 out of 65 lawsuits filed – but they have prepared the ground for a repeat of the false accusations that the other side stole the election.

The stage has been set by Trump constantly assuring his supporters that he was on track for an overwhelming victory. The tycoon and his underlings have been repeating for months that they are so far ahead that only fraud on a vast scale could explain a defeat.

In recent weeks, the party has stepped up its insinuations and nonsensical accusations of foreigners being imported to vote illegally, and has pushed fake news stories about ballot stuffing by the Democrats and voting machines hacked by the “Deep State” (or, optionally, China). The torrent of........

© Il Manifesto Global