Al-Qaeda has begun increasingly replicating the tactics employed by its Salafi-jihadi rival, Islamic State of Iraq and Levant (ISIS), in Africa’s Sahel region, especially so in Mali and Burkina Faso by relying on powerful affiliates like Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM). It has done so to revitalise its ideological appeal and rejuvenate its primacy in the global jihadi fold, even as ISIS has remained the deadliest terror group for the ninth consecutive year.
Given the global geopolitical flux animated by the great power rivalry between the United States and China, escalating conflicts in West Asia and Ukraine, and strong opposition to presence of foreign military presence, terrorism hotspots like Sahel can expect to encounter growing instability. These factors are bound to create a conducive ecosystem for terrorist groups like Al-Qaeda and their affiliates to inflict more violence than before. The deteriorating security conditions have been matched by the regional military juntas’ faltering responses to the security challenges. These regimes have not translated their rhetoric and proclamations at international forums1 into credible deterrent actions against terrorism-related activities.
The regional landscape presents complex challenges. The jihadi activities that have kept Burkina Faso embroiled in heightened insecurity since August 2015 have gradually destabilised its neighbouring country, Mali. According to the Global Terrorism Index Report 2024,2 Burkina Faso and Mali are the first and third most affected countries due to terrorism-related activities, respectively. Additionally, with 26 per cent of all terrorism-related incidents and nearly 50 per cent of all deaths last year due to such incidents, Sahel has supplanted West Asia and North Africa as the region worst affected by terrorism.
The announcement by the military chiefs of Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali in August 2024 about establishing a task force, the Alliance of Sahel States, to counter the terrorism threat plaguing their countries has remained limited to verbal proclamations until now. There is no clarity as yet about the specifications of the mandate, long and short-term goals, binding commitments and strategy. Mercenary groups like Wagner or Africa Corps,3 meanwhile, whose deployment was intended to stabilise Sahelian countries, have found it beyond their capability to fight back against assaults launched by terrorist groups lately.
These trends indicate the relevance of the warning bells that the United Nations........