As the Israel–Hamas war enters its second year, the situation in the region remains tense and unpredictable amid the calls for de-escalation from the international community. The worsening situation in Gaza, coupled with the escalation on the Lebanese front and persisting tensions in the Red Sea, raises serious concerns about regional security and stability.

In response to the 7 October 2023 Hamas terrorist attack, Israel declared war on Hamas with three primary objectives: to eliminate Hamas, secure the release of hostages and neutralise any future threats from Gaza. After one year of the war, Gaza has witnessed huge devastation. The war is expanding to new frontiers such as the Red Sea and Lebanon with the involvement of the Houthis and Hezbollah, respectively. As a result, the sensitive regional politics and security in West Asia have become further precarious.

The conflict has left large parts of Gaza devastated by Israeli strikes. The human toll is staggering, with over 41,000 deaths and more than 95,000 injuries in Gaza since the war began. In the West Bank, over 10,700 Palestinians have been detained by Israeli forces since the beginning of the war.

Militarily, after one year of fighting, Israel has inflicted severe damage on Hamas. Israel has not only killed thousands of Hamas terrorists, but it has also uncovered a huge network of underground tunnels across Gaza used by the group for military operations and as hideouts. These tunnels, some of which connected Gaza to Egypt, have been largely destroyed, representing a major setback for Hamas. Despite continuing to resist, Hamas has lost much of its manpower, weapons and infrastructure.

Hamas is now demanding a ceasefire and the release of its cadres in Israeli prisons in exchange for the release of around 101 Israeli hostages still in its custody along with other conditions. Mediation efforts by the US, Egypt and Qatar have not yielded any positive results. Meanwhile, in July 2024, Israel’s parliament passed a resolution that opposes the establishment of a Palestinian state as it “will pose an existential danger to the State of Israel and its citizens, perpetuate the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and destabilise the region”.1 Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu mentioned in his speech at the United Nations General Assembly on 27 September that his country wants a “de-militarised and de-radicalised Gaza”.2 He also asserted that Israel will keep fighting until all the Israeli hostages are released by Hamas.

As Israel started its war against Hamas in Gaza, within no time, two other fronts have emerged which have far-reaching implications for the countries in West Asia and beyond. The Houthis of Yemen declared their support for Hamas against Israel. They started attacking ships linked to Israel passing through the Red Sea as part of their war against Israel. Subsequently, the Houthis targeted the vessels belonging to other countries as well, thereby creating a major tension in the waters of the Red Sea and forcing the ships from Asia to Europe to take the longer route via the Cape of Good Hope. The participation of the Houthis in the war was the most unexpected element for Israel. Houthis have been attacking Israel by launching missiles and drones, some of which have hit the southern Israeli port city of Eilat. As a result of the Houthis attacks, the Eilat port, which managed around 8 per cent of Israel’s trade, had to stop operations in November 2023.

In a major retaliatory attack against the Houthis, Israel targeted an oil installation in Hodeida in Yemen. Again, in September 2024, Houthis were successful in hitting central Israel with missiles, though no loss of life has been reported in this case. Located far away from Israel, the Houthis have been able to inflict substantial damage on the country by getting themselves unilaterally involved in the war. Israel undertook another major attack on 29 September on Hodeida port and Ras Isa as well.

Besides, the tension in the north along the border with Lebanon has also intensified in recent months. As a result of continuous bombardment by Hezbollah, more than 60,000 Israelis living in the north of the country, have been displaced. Facing continuous attacks from Hezbollah, the Israeli government has now further expanded the objective of the war, which includes bringing the displaced population in the north back to their homes.3

On 17 September, more than 2,750 communication devices (Pagers) used by Hezbollah........

© IDSA