Xi’s Visit to the US: Managing Constructive Strategic Stability |
While the specifics of what will be discussed remain unknown, sources in Washington have claimed that China and the US could discuss AI-safety risks during the September summit.[iii] The US is concerned about AI-directed cyberattacks from China and wants to establish a regulatory framework in which US and Chinese AI labs police themselves.[iv] Similarly, Beijing is keen to ease the tech war and negotiate some relaxation on Chinese access to high-end chips and equipment.[v] The Chinese side has not yet confirmed the agenda. Similar to the government’s posture when Trump visited Beijing in May, China is again reserved and cautious in its press briefings about the upcoming summit.
Although there were no unexpected breakthroughs during the last round of head-of-state talks, the two sides had agreed to establish constructive strategic stability to manage bilateral ties. Proposed by Beijing and endorsed by Washington, constructive strategic stability is expected to be the new diplomatic framework that guides China–US détente for the next three years. However, the question remains whether the two sides share the same understanding of what constitutes constructive strategic stability and what could upend the arrangement.
For now, the convergence on these issues appears thin. Both sides acknowledge that any escalation without guardrails will inflict high costs on each other.[vi] The all-out tariff war in the early months of 2025 disrupted consumer prices, supply-chains and economic activity, demonstrating the real damage unmanaged rivalry can cause. In that context, the US–China joint statement emphasising cooperation and the subsequent agreement to pause the tariff war after the Geneva talks in 2025 reflected both sides’ affirmation of the need to regulate the relationship’s disruptive dynamics. Therefore, the Xi–Trump meeting in May also marked a continuation of bilateral efforts to stabilise the relationship at the highest level.
Filled with photo-op moments, the May 2026 summit, however, produced no substantive convergence between the two countries on what constructive strategic stability would require to function properly or what factors could upend the arrangement. The Chinese readout, issued after the meeting, said that constructive strategic stability consisted of ‘Four Stabilities’: positive stability with cooperation as the mainstay; healthy stability with competition within proper limits; constant stability with manageable differences; and lasting stability with expectable peace.[vii]
From the Chinese perspective, this translates into first, respecting China’s four red lines—the Taiwan question, democracy and human rights, China’s path and........