The 2026 NATO Summit in Ankara: An Analysis |
At the 2025 Hague summit, allies agreed to raise their defence spending to 5 per cent of their gross domestic product (GDP)—3.5 per cent of this would be core military spending, and 1.5 per cent for broader security-related needs, including cyber defence and infrastructure. Following US pressure and the Russia–Ukraine war, all 32 allies met the older 2 per cent target in 2025, as compared to only three in 2014.[4]
When NATO announced in 2025 that Turkiye would host the following year’s summit, it highlighted that Turkiye has been a “strong NATO Ally for more than 70 years”.[5] Turkiye, with the second-largest army among all the allies, sitting at the intersection of the Black Sea, the eastern Mediterranean, West Asia, and the Caucasus, was described as an indispensable power within the alliance by President Recep Erdogan.[6]
The dominant theme at the summit was defence investment and the progress member states have made towards the 5 per cent target. The summit declaration noted that in 2025 European allies and Canada increased their spending in core defence by approximately 139 billion US dollars. Rutte called it a “sea change” in their approach, and credited President Trump for this reform, summing it as “Trump Trillion”.[7]
Another closely related theme was defence industrial production. The first day of the summit was devoted in part to the NATO Summit Defence Industry Forum, a premier high-level event on transatlantic defence investment, innovation and production.[8] It aimed to bring government officials and key industry leaders together to determine how the additional spending committed by allied governments would translate into increased production, cooperation and joint procurement. The summit concluded with a letter of intent for new surveillance aircraft and air-defence arrangements.
The third important pillar of the summit rested on the commitment of sustained support to Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy attended the summit, and allies addressed how the role of Ukraine has evolved from being a recipient of aid to a security provider, given its wartime innovation and production of drone and counter-drone warfare.[9]
The summit asserted the understanding that European allies and Canada, working with the US, are “assuming greater responsibility for the Alliance’s defence”. In addition, the declaration flagged Russia as a source of “long-term threat” for Euro-Atlantic security and stability, alongside the persistent threat of terrorism. It reaffirmed the “360-degree approach” of NATO to deterrence and defence—the principle that the alliance must be able to respond to any threat.[10]
Lastly, issues relating to the emerging domains of warfare were discussed. The Declaration had allies........