Does California’s Open Primary Leave an Opening for Mahan? |
For a decade and a half now, California has lived a fantasy: Place all statewide candidates on one primary ballot, let voters choose their two favorites, and the result will be at least one hopeful who survived the primary by fashioning a centrist persona that resonated beyond partisan bases.
Or so was the vision when California voters, back in 2010, signed off on Proposition 14 and a new primary system that advanced the top two vote-getters to the general election, regardless of political affiliation. (The new system applied to elected statewide and legislative officials as well as members of Congress.)
What California candidates soon recognized: The system can be easily gamed.
Take California’s 2018 governor’s race. Faced with the prospect of a November runoff against fellow Democrat and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, then lieutenant governor Gavin Newsom launched attack ads against Republican John Cox. Why? Because Newsom knew that such attacks would elevate the decidedly conservative Cox past Villaraigosa and into second place in the primary—i.e., easy pickings in the general election, considering that Newsom’s party enjoyed a 20-point advantage among registered voters.
The tactic repeated itself in 2024 and California’s most recent US Senate race. Rather than appeal beyond his Democratic so as to attract to Republic or unaffiliated voters, then congressman Adam Schiff ran ads targeting Republican Steve Garvey. But this plot had a twist: Then congresswoman Katie Porter (currently a gubernatorial candidate) ran ads touting the conservative bona fides of Republican Eric Early. Why would a diehard progressive like Porter, who drinks from the collectivist well of Elizabeth Warren, talk up a conservative foe in favor of limited government and free markets? Simple: Porter wanted to take votes away from Garvey and thus better her chances to finish first or second alongside Schiff.
The question in 2026: Can one gubernatorial candidate use his centrist persona to survive the June primary? That would be San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, the eighth Democrat to enter the contest but the only current........