Preparing for a super, monster, Godzilla El Niño |
We are lost for names and adjectives, as an exceptionally strong El Niño evolves in the Pacific Ocean.
The Pacific Ocean usually goes through a cycle of warm and cool phases every few years. An El Niño is its warm phase and a La Niña is its cool phase. When a large part of the ocean warms, it changes where clouds form and rain falls. The changes reach far beyond the Pacific, altering the chances of drought or heavy rain in different parts of the world. In India, El Niño often weakens the summer monsoon.
So, what is special about this year? Many earlier El Niños peaked with central Pacific waters about 1°C warmer than usual. Several in recent decades have exceeded 2°C. The current El Niño, however, has already exceeded earlier observed peaks. Forecasts indicate that the central Pacific could be nearly 4°C warmer than usual by November or December, when El Niño usually peaks.
And why does this matter now? Human-caused global warming has heated up our oceans, which absorb over 90% of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases. El Niño releases some of that extra ocean heat into the atmosphere, and the effect often lasts for months after the event peaks. Meteorological agencies predict that 2027 will be the warmest year on record, as a result of unabated global warming and an exceptionally strong El Niño. This means that the coming seasons may unfold in a world unlike any in the past several thousand years.
The southwest monsoon closed with a 13% rainfall deficit. Punjab, Bihar, Karnataka, Maharashtra, and the northeastern........