Thomas Ahrenkiel, head of the Danish Defence Intelligence Service, recently warned about the “low but growing risk” of Russia deploying military forces inside bordering NATO countries with the aim of dividing the alliance. Separately, concerns are growing in Europe that Moscow is preparing for a ‘stealth mobilisation’ of thousands of Russians to join the war.

Such warnings come in the context of increased Russian grey-zone aggression, including covert kinetic actions across the continent since mid-2026. The drone attack at the Leipzig/Halle airport in August is considered the most dangerous of such sabotage operations — one that could have led to mass casualties and, consequently, direct physical escalation.

In August, John Ratcliffe, chief of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) was in Moscow to allegedly warn Russia against any escalatory intent against the Baltic States. Signalling the severity of the situation, France held emergency national security talks in September, Germany is preparing its national health care system to absorb mass casualties and affording its intelligence agencies greater operational autonomy, the UK is urging citizens to stock up on food and other essentials, and the Polish armed forces remain on constant alert. Ukraine, for its part, is pressing ahead with a drone and sabotage campaign deep inside Russia and continues to stymie Russian advances on the eastern front.

Europe has been preparing for a wider war with Russia for the past four years, but something has shifted in the last two weeks. Russia’s conflict with Europe is on the cusp of major horizontal escalation, even if it doesn’t translate into direct NATO-Russia confrontation.

This raises the questions of “why now”, and “what follows”. The timing of such escalation fears........

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