I’m struck by how retrospective and negative the thoughts of pro-independence politicians and activists have been, as we conclude a week of reflection on the 2014 independence referendum and its effects on Scottish politics and society,
Pro-independence figures have spent a decade insisting that their defeat was a battle lost in a war they were sure of winning. If that were true, I would have expected them to approach this year’s anniversary as an opportunity to galvanise their movement, not publicly reminisce about past glories, rue missed opportunities, and assign blame.
But that is precisely what much, perhaps most, of the commentary from the Yes camp has been composed of this week. Much of the rest has consisted of group therapy rather than serious analysis. Where pro-independence figures have looked to the future, they have often been wish casting with predictions that, for example, Scotland will be independent within a decade without a plan to get there.
Frankly, I can’t blame them. This is a movement that has spent the past ten years being marched up the hill with promises of imminent referendums that the Scottish Government never had the power to hold. Indeed, many of the supposedly missed opportunities were a mirage. The critical error made by the independence movement’s leadership after the 2016 EU referendum was believing that the political opportunity structure had opened up at all.
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The independence movement is stuck driving in circles in a strategic cul-de-sac for myriad reasons, and the actions of its leadership – the SNP’s leadership in particular – have contributed. But the fact is that they have failed to hold another........