A spectre is haunting Scottish politics – the spectre of secessionism. This election is not about Scottish independence, and the issue is nowhere near the top of voters’ agendas, yet the aftereffects and implications of a decade of constitutional obsession loom large.
Independence will not form the core of the SNP’s campaign, but its absence leaves a hole it is struggling to fill. With the constitutional question no longer atop the agenda and with no appealing record in London to stand on, the Scottish Conservatives likewise are struggling to find an effective message. And with Labour likely to regain power, it is their performance in coming years that will be key to laying Scottish secessionism to rest in the long run.
There is no question that independence has fallen down the political agenda. In the 2021 Scottish Parliament election, the Scottish Election Study found a "strong and substantial" relationship between independence support and voting for the SNP. Indeed, a Survation poll on the eve of the vote found that nine in 10 independence supporters intended to vote for a pro-independence party. An Ipsos poll found that half of all voters said that independence was a "very important" issue in deciding who to vote for.
Fast forward to today, and Survation’s latest poll, taken over last weekend, found that just six in 10 pro-independence voters now intend to vote for a pro-independence party while a quarter now intend to vote for Labour. A poll conducted by More In Common last week found that just a fifth of voters now say that independence is an important issue in determining who they will vote for, including just under two in five past SNP voters.
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