It is May 9th 2026 – a Saturday, late in the afternoon. Scotland’s political correspondents gather in stately gardens, sitting before a podium as the sun sits high but a cold chill bites. The man who is about to speak has had two sleepless nights and agitated days as Scotland’s voters decided and the wheels of democracy turned to confirm their decision. Still, he looks fresh, energised by the knowledge that he will soon be First Minister. Anas Sarwar begins to speak.
You cannot convince me that Mr Sarwar has not allowed himself the indulgence of imagining that moment, even if he would deny it and rightly point out that there is a long way to go to the 2026 Scottish Parliament Elections. If it is a scene he wishes to make reality, 2024 may be as vital for him as 2026 – perhaps the most crucial year of his career.
Why do I say this? Because in politics, success breeds success, at least in the early, heady days of political momentum before inertia sets in and political entropy begins to do its work. The 2024 general election, whenever it comes, will be the first national election Scottish Labour will have fought that they have a realistic prospect of winning since 2011, and if utilised properly, can function as a springboard to 2026.
The current polls paint a bit of a mixed picture, at least regarding headline voting intention. Since the start of October, three have had the SNP ahead of Labour in the Westminster vote, two have had Labour ahead of the SNP, and two have had the two parties tied.
From Labour’s point of view, the most positive of these polls was fielded by YouGov for the........