Reform UK is on the march. Having won 14.3% of the popular vote and five MPs in the July General Election, it is now polling as high as 21% in Britain-wide polling. If a General Election were held tomorrow, it could quadruple its MP tally or better. The next General Election will almost certainly not be held until 2028 or later, but it is set to make significant gains at local and devolved elections in the meantime.
That includes Scotland. Reform UK won 7% of the vote north of the Border in July’s General Election, and despite failing to win any seats had a substantial impact. It won 14.6% in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East, where the SNP defeated then-Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross by a wafer-thin margin of 2.5 points. However, it also won a higher proportion of the vote than the winning party’s majority in an additional 11 seats, four of which were very narrow SNP holds against strong Labour challengers.
There is no sign that this was a one-off. Reform UK’s current vote in Scotland may be the most transferable from election to election of any party north of the Border. 71% of Scottish Reform UK voters interviewed by the British Election Study said they voted for them because they saw them as “the best party”; no major party managed above 50%, and the Scottish Greens recorded 66%.
Read more by Mark McGeoghegan
Indeed, since the election, its support has grown even further in Scotland, with one recent poll putting it at 14% at Westminster and no poll putting it below 11%. It is also set to be highly competitive at the 2026 Scottish Parliament elections. Current polling suggests that it would win........