Enjoy Christmas in Downing Street, Sir Keir - it will be your last |
The greatest collapse in the history of British democracy was, technically, that of the independent Liberals under H. H. Asquith in 1918. In the wake of the First World War, the Coalition government under David Lloyd George issued letters of endorsement, nicknamed Coalition Coupons, to candidates who supported them. Liberals not issued a coupon formed a faction under Mr Asquith and, compared to their result in 1910, lost around 30 percentage points of the popular vote.
No such massive decline in the popular vote would be seen until last year, when the Conservatives lost around 20 points. Now Labour, who have won every election in Wales for over a century, look set to match that Liberal collapse in the 2026 Senedd elections. Alongside what looks likely to be their worst-ever result in a Scottish Parliament election and a pasting in the English local elections, this Hogmanay may be the last that Sir Keir Starmer celebrates as Prime Minister.
A recent poll by YouGov and Cardiff University found that just 10% of Welsh voters now intend to vote for Labour in the upcoming Senedd elections, compared to the 33% who intend to vote for the pro-independence Plaid Cymru and the 30% who intend to vote for Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.
........