The US president is boxed in between denouncing campus protests and alienating the young voters he needs. Foreign Editor David Pratt examines how the crisis has echoes of the past and whether history might be about to repeat itself

The year was 1968. As the Democratic National Convention got under way, America was in an uneasy mood. There had been the assassinations of the leading candidate for the nomination, Robert F Kennedy, as well as civil rights leader Martin Luther King.

Brewing in the background, meanwhile, was the war in Vietnam, and anti-war protesters incensed by US involvement were making their presence felt on the streets, university campuses and at the Democratic Convention itself in Chicago.

Fast-forward to 2024 and the current presidential election year and it’s easy to see certain stark parallels today with that time back in 1968.

This year too, in August, the Democratic National Convention will once again gather in Chicago, against the backdrop of an increasingly divided America and anti-war protests, raising the spectre of the notoriously chaotic events of 56 years ago in the Windy City.

For over six months now the Israel Hamas war in Gaza and the humanitarian catastrophe it has created has become a consistent presence in US political discourse, adding another acrimonious layer to an already bitter election battle likely between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.

So, just what impact on November’s ballot is the war in Gaza having and to what extent might it prove a determining factor in its outcome?

Normally, US presidential elections tend to be determined by domestic issues but, this time, foreign policy and especially the war in Gaza is playing an increasingly significant role with every day that passes.

Currently, the Biden administration wants to be seen as putting a brake on the Israeli military onslaught and policies pursued by the government of Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but this to date doesn’t wash with many Americans.

The perception among substantial sections of the population, especially the young, is that this is all window dressing, leaving many disillusioned with Biden’s indulgence of Israel while neglecting the plight of the Palestinians.

This disillusionment, too, is not solely restricted to the electorate but has also leached into the ranks of Biden’s own Democratic Party, catching his campaign off guard.

Police push back on demonstrators protesting the war in Gaza as they work to remove a non-sanctioned encampment on the campus of UW-Madison in Madison, Wis., on Wednesday, May 1, 2024. (John Hart/Wisconsin State Journal via AP)

Democratic unrest

The White House had expected Democratic unrest over Gaza to fade as Biden picked up his campaigning against presumptive Republican nominee Trump, but this has simply not happened.

Just last week, 57 of the 212 Democrats in the House of Representatives asked Biden in a letter to withhold aid to Israel in an attempt to stop a planned Israeli assault on the city of Rafah, where almost half of the Gaza Strip’s 2.3 million people have taken refuge. “We urge you to invoke existing law and policy to immediately withhold certain offensive military aid to the Israeli government, including aid sourced from legislation already signed into law, in order to pre-empt a full-scale assault on Rafah,”........

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