I am indy-lite - but Sarwar could win my vote if he keeps Starmer away from Scotland |
Columnist of the Year Dani Garavelli explains why Anas Sarwar will not only have to convince her that he's dancing to a different drum than Keir Starmer, but that he has what it takes to effect real change in Scotland
SO, we’re back in Scottish election campaign mode. Canvassers are already banging on doors. The polls are predicting the SNP will remain the biggest party despite its failure to deliver on all sorts of promises, but it will fall short of the majority John Swinney has claimed would put independence back on the table. (Spoiler alert: it’s off the table for the foreseeable future, whatever the result).
Meanwhile Scottish Labour, which would, in any previous era, have been able to capitalise on the SNP’s exhaustion and public disaffection with its performance, is haemorrhaging the support it won in the 2024 general election.
That support was always ephemeral, with many of the votes it gained on short-term loan from other parties in order to get the Tories out. But the unpopularity of Keir Starmer’s UK government and the rise of Reform have compounded the drop-off.
As a result, Anas Sarwar is already playing catch-up. His current net approval rating is lower than Swinney’s (-18 compared to -5, according to a recent Survation poll) and his party is struggling to regain second place in the parliament it once dominated.
Read more Dani Garavelli
On Thursday night, the SNP held onto Glenrothes West and Kinglassie in a council by-election that saw Reform push Scottish Labour into third place. Crunch the numbers and it’s bleaker still: Scottish Labour lost half its vote, compared to the SNP which lost just 10%, and Reform which came from nowhere to take one in four.
As a left-wing voter horrified by Nigel Farage’s Trumpist schtick, it’s depressing to behold. And frustrating, too, to think events down south could help push the exhausted SNP to a fifth successive victory while bolstering a party hellbent on sowing division.
As far as Scottish Labour is concerned, votes like mine........