As Reform rises and parties feud, Scotland heads for a radically altered parliament |
As John Swinney defends his budget plans and UK parties face internal squabbling, Brian Taylor examines the fundamental problems which will confront our governments in the years ahead.
What caught your attention this week? Defections and disputes? The endless “political psychodrama?” (Source, Badenoch, K.)
I was certainly drawn to that. It is feasible that the underlying pattern of British politics is being rewoven before our eyes – with an inevitable impact upon the Scottish elections in May.
Feasible – but by no means yet certain. Reform UK may supplant the Conservatives. Or their threat may subside. Or, in the medium term, there may be a realignment on the Right.
Intriguing stuff. However, I was more struck by fundamental trends identified in dispassionate analytical studies, such as the new forecasts produced by the Scottish Fiscal Commission.
Those suggest that whoever wins the Holyrood election, whoever is returned as First Minister, will face a substantial, significant and sustained challenge in office.
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To repeat, whoever wins. This is about the core nature of our economy, our society, our polity.
Let us however linger a moment upon the psychodrama. Reform UK are undeniably buoyant. Is there anything which could dull the ever-present Farage grin?
Well, perhaps a couple of things. Firstly, every major defection from the Right enhances their profile – but also risks them seeming simply Tories Mark II, perhaps narrowing their appeal.
Secondly, voters currently have few expectations of Reform. The scunner........