Are we heading for an early Holyrood election? On Wednesday, Chancellor Rachel Reeves will present her long-deferred Budget statement to the House of Commons. This is a significant moment for the UK Labour Government. If a new government should dazzle, Sir Keir Starmer’s has been on a low light so far. Scuttlebutt this weekend suggests she may increase the national insurance contributions of employers by a couple of percentage points.

Briefings have gone out that after a fractious process, UK Government departments have finally agreed on the cuts the Treasury are requiring of them. There are also suggestions some spending rules will be revisited to give the Government more flexibility to invest in capital spending, but the details remain to be disclosed.

Come what may, for Scotland, the implications are likely to be stark, and nowhere starker than in the debate about the Scottish Budget Reeves’ decisions will precipitate.

While Holyrood can tinker with income tax bands and a selection of other devolved taxes, a significant proportion of the Scottish Budget is underpinned by the block grant back from Whitehall, reflecting so-called Barnett consequentials and money taken in from reserved levies including national insurance and corporation tax.

John Swinney (left) and Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar could be going head to head (Image: Jane Barlow)The SNP currently have 62 MSPs in Holyrood – three short of the magic number giving the party an overall majority in Holyrood. Horse-trading and a degree of pantomime are to be expected on occasions like this, as the opposition tests its strength against the Government, extracting as much support for their policy agenda as they can, while wargaming the risks and consequences of overplaying their hands.

This weekend, the Greens have been ramping up the stakes, saying they’re prepared to “bring down” the Government if the budget proposals aren’t sufficiently to their liking. Purely as political gamesmanship, the threats need to seem real.

If the Greens opened their Budget negotiations with the SNP suggesting that there are no circumstances in which they’d vote against the Government, they’d get nothing for their pains.

This weekend, Patrick Harvie said: “As Scottish Green MSPs, we have a........

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