The forecast for London on Tuesday promises late summer sunshine and a gentle breeze. Perfect weather to sit in the Downing Street rose garden and hear dire warnings of a long hard winter ahead.

Keir Starmer will be host and weatherman for the occasion. Though his Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, has done much of the prep work, this is the prime minister’s show, his first major speech since winning power in July.

Among those joining the media to hear what he has to say will be selected members of the public, making this a sort of “people’s garden party/press conference”. If nothing else it is an interesting experiment. The last time the media took their work outside like pupils at the end of term, Dominic Cummings was playing headmaster, furiously telling everyone off for questioning his trip to Barnard Castle during lockdown.

I expect the furniture at tomorrow’s event will be a shift up from Dom’s shaky pasting table. Only a formal Downing Street podium will do for the sombre message on the way. One Sunday paper summarised it thus: “Things can only get worse”. Yes, as if hard times are not bad enough, that flaming song is going to be worming its way into your brain again.

The prime minister is expected to say that things are “worse than we ever imagined”. Worse, even, than Rachel Reeves’ £22 billion black hole. It was already going to be tough to fill that gap, but now more serious........

© Herald Scotland