Venezuela: The Blocked Transition |
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Venezuela: The Blocked Transition
Neither in Cuba nor in Nicaragua has there been, despite external pressure, a visible rupture within the dictatorial regimes. Not so in Venezuela.
By Fernando Mires (Confidencial)
HAVANA TIMES – The premise of this article is that every transition is not an event but a process, understanding a process as an articulation of events that leads to the fulfillment of a new historical phase. Indeed, history, far from being determined by laws, follows courses conditioned by the articulation of events that lead to processes that determine themselves and, only after they occur, can be divided into phases or episodes.
Based on that premise, we can say that in Venezuela—and perhaps in countries where autocracies also prevail, such as Cuba and Nicaragua—an externally induced process has begun which, eventually, and only if certain conditions are met, could lead, if not to democratization, at least to the formation of non-autocratic republics.
I say externally induced because the determining factor has been, and will remain for some time, the Trump administration, which, following the 2025 National Security Strategy to the letter, seeks to ensure hemispheric dominance in countries at risk of being economically, politically, or militarily occupied by one or both rival empires: Russia and China.
I can therefore say, without fear of being mistaken, that the new world order will also be a neo-imperial order, and the three countries mentioned are pieces on the board of a new division of the world.
We must keep in mind that the Trump administration is not interested in eliminating dictatorships, nor in establishing democracies. It is more interested in taking control of the strategic resources of the nations it integrates into its orbit of domination and thus preventing, in “its” hemisphere, the entry of Chinese capital or Russian military agents. It has achieved this in the three dictatorships mentioned.
In Cuba, Trump will have to secure his dominance, though he does not yet know how. In Nicaragua, Ortega and Murillo are so opportunistic that no one would be surprised if they declared themselves pro-USA overnight. In Venezuela, Trump has achieved something more: exercising economic and political tutelage through the neo-Chavista government of Delcy Rodríguez.
In Cuba and Nicaragua, there are no signs of democratic transition. In Venezuela, by contrast, there are. Venezuela is—or has become—the weakest link in the Latin American dictatorial chain. That is why many observers, Venezuelan and otherwise, write about the beginning of a transition from dictatorship to democracy. My opinion, however, is not (yet) so optimistic.
Rupture and opening in Venezuela
In Venezuela, there are reasons to think that a transition is near, but also reasons to think that the process, if it takes place, will be very difficult. For now, my thesis is: In Venezuela, the transition from dictatorship to democracy is blocked by factors that are more internal than external. This thesis must be substantiated.
In Venezuela there has been—and still is—an internal rupture within the regime that has led toward a political opening. Others, with good reason, think the opposite: that it has been the political opening, due to the “extraction” of the dictator, that has led to the rupture of the Maduro regime. Historians will later determine which of these realities is correct. The former seems more likely to the author of these lines. Trump acted knowing that at the top of the PSUV there was, if not a rupture, at least a fracture.
As I write, Cardinal Porras has confirmed that the United States offered Maduro the possibility of leaving the country, which the dictator rejected. This suggests that the US maintained contact not only with Maduro but with the regime’s top leadership. What was at stake at that moment—and as the Rodríguez siblings and probably Diosdado Cabello understood—was the historical survival of Chavismo. Handing over Maduro was the only way to avoid a massive US invasion under the pretext of a war against narcoterrorism.
Surely, for the more hardline Maduro faction, the alternative embraced by the Rodríguez faction was seen as betrayal. That is also the thesis of the main party supporting Maria Corina........