2025: Cold Realism without cynicism |
The last week of December is a time to reflect on the year gone by. It should not become, though, an occasion for nostalgia nor of regret for lost opportunities even if lessons have to be drawn from the latter. Cold realism, without a shred of emotion, should always be the basis for analysis which must necessarily accompany reflection. Realistic analysis should never descend to cynicism because that warps interpretation. All this applies especially to international developments.
The principal global development this year has been the disruption, if not the beginning of the demolition, of the world order put in place by the victors of the Second World War. It is ironic that it was the United States, which emerged as the global superpower after the war, and bears the major responsibility for establishing this world order and the institutions of global governance that underpin it, that is now disrupting and demolishing world order.
US President Donald Trump seems determined to pursue US interests in a manner that is undermining the rules of the present world order. This has been seen in political, diplomatic and economic spheres. His pursuit of his Make America Great Again (MAGA) programme demonstrates that he has no desire to reconcile US interests with that of other countries, even his country’s longtime allies. (China may be the exception; more on this later) The premise of the........