Kashmir’s February has begun to feel like April. With maximum temperatures rising 9 to 11 degrees Celsius above normal across multiple stations, the Valley is witnessing an unsettling climatic shift that can no longer be dismissed as a statistical aberration. In Srinagar, the mercury has already touched 20.2°C, 9.2 degrees above normal,  ranking as the fifth warmest February day in recorded history. Gulmarg broke its all-time February record at 11.6°C. Qazigund crossed the 21°C mark, the highest ever for the month. Kokernag equalled a decade-old record. Pahalgam and Kupwara too entered their list of warmest February days. Even Jammu recorded 26.2°C, well above its seasonal average.

These are not isolated spikes. They form a pattern. For a region whose ecology, economy and also culture are closely tied to snow and winter precipitation, such drastic departures from the established rhythm of seasons are alarming. February warmth is not just about pleasant afternoons or lighter woollens. It has direct consequences for snow accumulation in higher reaches and, ultimately, water availability for the months ahead.

The Valley is already grappling with an extended dry spell and significant rainfall deficits. Jhelum has shown worrying signs of reduced flow, and tributaries are shrinking. When winter precipitation declines and temperatures rise simultaneously, it does many things: snow melts faster, groundwater recharge weakens, and springs and streams dry earlier than usual.

This, in turn affects agriculture, horticulture and tourism. A warmer February could disrupt flowering cycles innapple orchards and affect yields later in the year. Also reduced snowfall and premature melting has shortened the winter tourism season, affecting livelihoods.

These developments are very disturbing. It is now a reality that mountain ecosystems are warming faster. The Himalayas are particularly vulnerable, putting places like Kashmir at greater risk.

The immediate response thus cannot be limited to weather bulletins. Authorities must strengthen water management planning, promote efficient irrigation practices, and invest in monitoring glacier and snowpack conditions. This is important to proactively prepare for what is to come. For now, we can only pray that warm winters remain an exception, not a norm.

© Greater Kashmir