Middle East on brink |
The world holds its breath once again as the United States and Israel attack Iran, and with the killing of the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Middle East has crossed a threshold into something far more combustible. The assassination of Khamenei has pushed the region further toward a catastrophic and unpredictable war.
President Donald Trump’s decision to launch strikes alongside Israel is reminiscent of the darkest chapters of recent history. The justifications are familiar: exaggerated threats, claims of preemption, and rhetoric about freedom and safety. The strategy is familiar too: use of an overwhelming power to force regime change. The script is the same as in Iraq in 2003, whose detrimental fallout is still playing out not just in Iraq but also across the region.
The same story is being replicated in Iran now: the US has manufactured a crisis, and presented what is deemed incontrovertible evidence about Iran’s push to acquire nuclear weapons. The United Nations has once again been ignored and military action has been sold as the only option, followed by a few rounds of dialogue that were not held in good faith.
The killing of Khamenei transforms the conflict fundamentally. In Iran’s political theology, the supreme leader is not merely a head of state but the embodiment of the Islamic Republic’s ideological core. His death at foreign hands is a martyrdom, which will be remembered not just in the months to come but for centuries, by Muslims across the world. Far from collapsing the system, such a blow may only fuel more resistance to the US and Israel, and not just during the war. It is bound to have far-reaching repercussions across the Muslim world.
Already, the war is on in full force with Iran retaliating against the invasion. As always, civilians will pay the highest price. As is also always the case, war develops its own momentum once unleashed, while leaders may talk of precision. As things stand, the Middle East stands at the edge of a deeper abyss, more so with other Arab states getting sucked into the evolving conflict. This is the time for diplomacy to move to the foreground. That is, before the region gets pulled into a conflict from which there is no easy return.