After the fall of the Soviet Union, a shared Persianate cultural heritage did not translate into Iranian influence in Central Asia.

Iran’s diplomatic activity in Central Asia has become more visible again in recent months. Senior Iranian officials have emphasized outreach to Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, presenting these ties as part of a broader effort to strengthen Iran’s eastern diplomacy. Official visits, economic forums, and public statements suggest renewed attention. On the surface, the relationship appears active.

Yet this sense of momentum obscures a deeper continuity. Despite periodic bursts of engagement, Iran’s position in Central Asia has not fundamentally changed. Tehran remains present, but it is not a central actor in shaping the region’s political or economic trajectory. The gap between activity and influence has persisted for decades.

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This pattern is not the result of a recent failure. It reflects a longer trajectory that began in the 1990s, when expectations about Iran’s role in post-Soviet Central Asia were significantly higher than what ultimately materialized. Early optimism in Tehran and among some Central Asian elites seeking diversification soon faded. What followed was a plateau that has proven remarkably durable, even as regional conditions and leadership have evolved.

In the years immediately following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Iran appeared well-positioned to build lasting relationships with the newly independent Central Asian states. Geography worked in Tehran’s favor. Iran moved quickly to recognize the new governments and establish diplomatic missions across the region. Cultural and linguistic connections, particularly with Tajikistan, reinforced assumptions that Iran would become a natural regional partner.

At that moment, Central Asian leaders were eager to diversify their foreign relations. Engagement with Iran offered an additional........

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