China’s Second Rise And Pax Sinica Debate As Xi Jinping Eyes Reunification, Taiwan And Global Power Shift |
English writer and philologist J.R.R. Tolkien saw history as a “long defeat”. Memories of national trauma persist across generations. Chinese leaders often re-evoke the country’s humiliation from the mid-1800s to the early 20th century as the “century of shame”. The historical trauma is, today, the cornerstone of its national identity.
That may be changing now. Like Tolkien, Chinese leaders now see what the literary genius called “glimpses of final victory” within history’s long defeat.
In a quarter century from now, China will be celebrating the centenary of the 1949 Communist revolution. Beijing may see the occasion as a major milestone to reclaim its global triumph and “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”, which President Xi Jinping had proclaimed on assuming office in 2012.
Now that US President Trump has torn up the international rulebook in Venezuela and is threatening to take over Greenland, does China see an opportunity to do the same in Taiwan? President Xi’s New Year’s Eve speech offers some insights into Beijing’s vision of what he calls “the reunification of our motherland”.
Central to Xi’s vision is the assimilation of Taiwan and its recognition by the world as part of “One China” ruled by the Chinese Communist Party. Beijing is, of course, not ruling out Taiwan’s peaceful reunification. Some analysts argue that Beijing is no fan of chaos. It likes to play the long game.
No Chinese Communist leader had previously used the phrase “great rejuvenation” either as a symbol or a policy. Some pundits see it as a call to........