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All 4 Iran war assumptions dead wrong — Trump proves experts got fooled again
Opinion
All 4 Iran war assumptions dead wrong — Trump proves experts got fooled again
Operation Epic Fury reveals how Washington assumptions about Middle East conflicts don't match battlefield realities
By Victoria Coates Fox News
Published March 9, 2026 5:00am EDT
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Pentagon policy chief grilled on US military action in Iran
House Democrats questioned Under Secretary of War for Policy Elbridge Colby about President Donald Trump's previous comments regarding war with Iran, as they claimed that he broke his campaign promise. (Credit: CSPAN)
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In these early days of Operation Epic Fury, while much remains unknown, one thing has become clear: how little the conventional wisdom about foreign policy in Washington, D.C., has to do with the realities taking shape on the battlefield. Traditionally, four things were assumed to be near inevitable if the United States and/or Israel were to take significant military action against Iran:
Iran’s supreme leader would be untouchable.The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps would deploy its terrorist proxies to ignite a regional war.Israel would be isolated in the Middle East and vulnerable to attack from Arab neighbors.The United States would be isolated on the world stage and limited in what it could do to support Israel, which would benefit Russia and China.
A group of men inspects the ruins of a police station struck amid the U.S.–Israeli military campaign in Tehran, Iran, on Tuesday, March 3, 2026. (Vahid Salemi/AP)
All four assumptions are dead wrong.
Obviously, the supreme leader was not untouchable. He was eliminated in one of the opening strikes of the mission, along with much of Iran’s senior leadership. His arrogant foolishness in gathering that leadership together was........
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