Surging gas prices, auto-crushing tariffs and ominous special elections: GOP sees Michigan slipping away

For years, Michigan Republicans had circled 2026 as their chance to regain power in the swing state where Democrats hold all statewide offices and both U.S. Senate seats. Now, doubts are creeping in.

Surging gas prices, an unpopular war in Iran and tariffs that have hit the state’s auto industry hard have all contributed to concerns about a worsening political environment for Michigan Republicans.

The latest warning sign came Tuesday, when a Democrat won a special election by almost 20 points in a state Senate district that Kamala Harris won by less than 1 point in 2024. The previous officeholder, a Democrat, carried the seat by 6 percentage points in 2022.

“To get to this margin in that kind of a district means that Democrats and independent voters are working in tandem to send a message to the Trump administration,” Michigan pollster Richard Czuba said of Tuesday’s result.

The sentiment could pose a challenge for Michigan Republicans in a midterm year when voters will decide the governor’s office, control of the Legislature and a premier U.S. Senate race. The mood of voters in Michigan also matters for a national Republican Party that sees the state — which Donald Trump flipped in 2024 — as central to its coalition and a midterm map that will again hinge heavily on the industrial Midwest.

‘If they don’t get Iran figured out pretty quick, we’re screwed’

Nationally, Trump’s approval rating on the economy fell between March and April as the Iran war sent prices higher, according to an AP-NORC poll. The April poll found that approval had eroded even among Republicans, with 62% having a positive view of the way Trump is handling the economy, down from 74% in March.

Trump’s economic approval remained low among independents, who have an outsized role in deciding elections in swing states like Michigan. About 2 in 10 independents approved of Trump’s performance on the economy in the April poll, down slightly from about 3 in 10 in March. Only about one-quarter of........

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