U.S. stock futures tumble as Iran refuses Trump’s ‘deal’ and Strait stays shut

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Monday reality check: Futures fall as the Strait stays shut

Global markets were mixed this morning as investors woke up to the news that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, conflict between the U.S. and Iran continues to involve live fire, and Iranian officials declined to confirm whether they would attend peace talks today. Oil is at $95 per barrel, up from a low of $86 three days ago. S&P 500 futures were down 0.46% this morning prior to the open in New York. The index closed up 1.2% in its last session at an all-time high of 7,126. 

Asia was mostly up. China’s CSI 300 was up 0.61%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 0.6%. 

But Europe flinched. Europe’s Stoxx 600 was down 1% in early trading. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was down 0.6%. 

Bitcoin was at $75K. 

Chart via TradingEconomics.

Is Kalshi a bookmaker? The Supreme Court may decide — and the answer could reshape U.S. gambling

Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket are massive sports betting platforms: Sports wagers account for over 85% of all bets on Kalshi. But the platforms have long claimed that they are not bookmakers but “events contracts” providers, which are classified as swaps under federal law. Kalshi, for instance, has a Designated Contracts Market license, which allows it to offer derivatives under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading........

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