U.S. and Iran begin peace talks as Trump’s White House goes to war against the media, insider traders, and the Pope

Good morning. On Fortune’s radar today:

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Get ready for nation-state oil hoarding.

Peace talks begin as the White House goes to war against the media, insider traders … and the Pope.

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Global stock market rally underway

Oil rose marginally to $97 per barrel this morning. S&P 500 futures were flat before the open in New York. The index closed up 0.62% yesterday. Asia was up strongly today: Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 1.84%, China’s CSI 300 gained 1.54%, and South Korea’s KOSPI added 1.40%. The optimism spread to Europe, too. The Stoxx 600 climbed 0.35% and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 put on 0.21% before lunch.

New inflation number incoming: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the Consumer Price Index for March—the first full month of the war—later today. The expectation is that it rose one percentage point to 3.4%, per ING.

Get ready for oil hoarding

Oil prices will stay “high for longer” even if the U.S. and Iran can make a peace agreement because governments don’t believe the peace will last, according to Macquarie analysts Thierry Wizman and Gareth Berry. Even if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, nations will start hoarding it in fear of a resumption of hostilities, they advised clients:

“It's the risk of renewed disruption (or control of the Strait by Iran) that will make crude oil appear scarce, and why the industrialized countries will want to hoard supplies immediately. That will push the spot and futures prices higher than they would otherwise be without the tension. And hoarding of crude oil could be just as inflationary as a shut-in of crude oil.”

“Dated Brent” is becoming a problem: There are already signs of stress in the oil market, according to CNBC. The price of “dated Brent,” which reflects cargoes at sea due for delivery between 10 days and a month from now, was at $131.97 per barrel on Thursday.

EXCLUSIVE: Has Anthropic built something too dangerous and too expensive to commercialize at scale?

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