As the U.S. Navy attempts to take control of the Strait of Hormuz today, Trump asks the Pope to shut up |
As the U.S. Navy attempts to take control of the Strait of Hormuz today, Trump asks the Pope to shut up
Good morning. On Fortune’s radar today:
Markets: Mostly down—but Wall Street still thinks the Fed will deliver cuts.
EXCLUSIVE: Citgo CEO imprisoned by Maduro still has hopes for the oil industry in Venezuela.
U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz starts today.
Yes, Trump is at war with the Pope.
Airline ticket prices track Google search volume for “flights.”
The huge number of Americans who have no retirement savings.
Stocks tumble on news of U.S. blockade in Hormuz
Oil was at $101 per barrel this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 0.53% this morning before the open in New York. The index closed down 0.11% on Friday. China’s CSI 300 was up 0.21% but markets in Europe and the rest of Asia fell: Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 0.74%. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was down 0.43% in early trading. Europe’s Stoxx 600 was down 0.7% before lunch.
Despite inflation, the Fed may yet cut interest rates
Friday’s inflation number for March—up nearly an entire percentage point to 3.3%, boosted by oil prices increased by the war—has Wall Street debating whether the Fed will deliver any more interest rate cuts this year. Surprisingly, a lot of analysts expect Chairman Jerome Powell to “look through” this burst in inflation and cut rates regardless later in the year. Here’s a sampling of analysts’ opinions:
“We still think interest rate cuts are more likely than hikes, especially given the Fed’s dual mandate (price stability AND maximum employment).”—ING’s James Knightley.
“We still expect cuts this year given the Fed's bias to look through supply-driven inflation, little signs of wage pressures, and political pressure. While risks are tilted towards no cuts, by September, Warsh should be in and have enough evidence of inflation cooling to rally support for a couple of cuts.”—Bank of America’s Claudio Irigoyen and Antonio Gabriel.
“As long as long-run inflation expectations remain well anchored, we still think the Fed will step in later this year and cut interest rates twice to shore up the labor market in the face of this energy supply shock.”—Bernard Yaros at Oxford Economics.
“We expect core CPI........