We’re no longer in a bull or bear market. We’re in a Trump market — and here’s how to navigate it |
We’re no longer in a bull or bear market. We’re in a Trump market — and here’s how to navigate it
Whether you like him, loathe him, or simply can’t look away, Donald Trump’s effect on financial markets alone makes him the most consequential person on the planet — just as he would like it. Liberation Day trade pronouncements this time last year crashed markets 20%. His fourth reversal on Iran war plans this past Monday sent them surging 6%.
Since the conflict with Iran erupted nearly a month ago, US financial markets have been violently whipsawed not by macroeconomic data, but by presidential Truth Social posts and quips. Donald Trump’s dizzying reversals and impromptu proclamations on Truth Social are driving wild intraday swings of 5%, 10%, and even up to 15% in some assets since the conflict began — a level of sheer volatility we have not witnessed since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Indeed, one prominent investor noted to us that right now, it is impossible to trade in financial markets without getting into the mind of Trump, which is far more important than Fed head speculation, interest rates, unemployment rates, inflation numbers, consumer sentiment, or any other macroeconomic indicator.
Simply put, in this volatile environment, we are navigating neither a bull nor a bear market. We are trapped in a Trump Market. To navigate a Trump market, one must understand how Trump thinks. And that’s the purpose of our new book, Trump’s Ten Commandments, which reveals 10 foundational patterns that underly Trump’s actions.
Below are three lessons from Trump’s Ten Commandments — and why, despite widespread optimism about a ceasefire, the speculation may be premature.
Commandment 1: The Stock Market Is Trump’s Only Real Constraint
As we reveal in Chapter 4 of Trump’s Ten Commandments, Trump has always viewed money as the ultimate scorecard — and other than perhaps pride, there is nothing he hates losing more than money. Financial markets represent nothing less than the most potent real-time report card on his own leadership, which he takes very, very personally. He might not care what panicking pundits, anxious experts, or even foreign allies and officials have to say, but financial markets are the one tripwire he cannot........