U.S.-Iran talks are ‘eerily similar’ to Trump’s bumpy China dealings in his first term, says top economist—don’t rule out further oil price spikes

It seems U.S.-Iran negotiations aren’t going as planned for either side, with fresh hostilities flaring this week, sending oil prices higher once again. For analysts, the question is whether this is the tried-and-tested White House method of pressure and de-escalation, or whether the conflict is spiraling.At the time of writing, Brent crude is back up to $77 a barrel—significantly down from the May high of $113 but still elevated compared to February, when the war started.Despite a supposed ceasefire, the U.S. and Iran have traded strikes on numerous occasions this week. Oil tankers are now reluctant to travel through the Strait of Hormuz, stalling supplies as a result.

Wall Street, on balance, is looking ahead despite the geopolitical bumps. Markets are still up month-to-month, and while the VIX volatility index is creeping higher, it is still some way off the levels reached at the outset of the conflict.

Some might argue that optimism bias is the factor settling the markets—others suggest it’s because analysts may have a sense of déjà vu.

The turbulent negotiations in the Middle East are “eerily similar” to Trump’s methods........

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