Ray Dalio thinks the world looks like ‘pre-1945 times’ as we near the end of his ‘Big Cycle’

In today’s CEO Daily: The Bridgewater founder describes a more unstable world order in a piece for Fortune

The big leadership story: Palantir CEO Alex Karp says, don’t worry, the DoD isn’t using AI for mass domestic surveillance

The markets: Mildly positive across Asia as oil passes $100/barrel

Plus: All the news and watercooler chat from Fortune.

Good morning. How will AI impact Ray Dalio’s prognosis for the economy? The Bridgewater founder published a piece in Fortune this weekend, in which he argues that we are in stage 5 of what he calls the “Big Cycle.” (The global macro investor has studied the six stages of how major empires rise and fall, with stage 5 being the period prior to collapse.)

Dalio writes that “it is indisputably clear that what is happening now is more analogous to pre-1945 times than the post-1945 times that we have gotten used to, which misleads most people’s expectations and causes them to be shocked about what’s happening.”

Among the hallmarks of stage 5:

 “Large and rapidly rising government debts and geopolitical conflicts that lead to concerns about the value of and security of money, especially of the reserve currency, which drives a movement out of fiat currencies and into gold.” (Gold prices are up 70% over the past year.)

 “Large income, wealth, and values gaps within countries that lead to the rise of populism of the right and populism of the left and irreconcilable differences that can’t be resolved with compromises and rule of law.” (The income gap has increased and, well, look around.)

“The movement from a world order with a dominant power and relative peace to a world order that reflects a great powers conflict.” (Iran could be the final blow to the WTO-based world order.)

Other forces could disrupt or accelerate the Big Cycle: AI is creating a drastic shift of wealth, with the potential to destroy jobs unlike anything we’ve experienced before. Artificial general intelligence could materially change the structure of money and nature of growth while creating faster and more volatile cycles. And one other factor comes to mind, following a fascinating discussion at the Explorers Club on Friday with NYU glaciologist David Holland about the “doomsday” Thwaites glacier in Antarctica: The accelerating pace of climate change, if not addressed, could make that coveted stage 1 seem even further away.Contact CEO Daily via Diane Brady at diane.brady@fortune.com

Palantir CEO says Defense Department isn’t using AI for citizen surveillance

Palantir CEO Alex Karp told Fortune that the Defense Department isn’t using—and won’t use, to his knowledge—AI for domestic surveillance. However, Karp expressed support for the use of AI tools in military partnerships abroad and argued that other nations’ militaries will do the same.

Trump’s AI Czar says country should find exit in Iran

Venture capitalist and Trump AI czar David Sacks told the All-In podcast that “we should probably find the off-ramp” in the U.S.-Israel war with Iran. Sacks claimed that Iran’s military has already been devastated, but certain groups within the Republican Party want to see even further military escalation.

Meta is flattening its corporate structure

Meta is doubling its employee-to-manager ratio to 50-1 per the Wall Street Journal, joining a wave of other companies who are looking to make decision-making more efficient and cut costs. André Spicer, executive dean of Bayes Business School in London and a professor of organizational behavior, says the move will “end in tragedy in the bottom line.”

S&P 500 futures are up 0.4%, following a 0.6% drop before the weekend. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.1%, South Korea’s KOSPI is up 1.1%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is up 1.5%. BYD, CATL and Xiaomi, all Chinese manufacturers working with green products, rose by over 5% in Hong Kong trading. India’s NIFTY 50 is flat; the STOXX Europe 600 is also flat in early trading. WTI Crude passed $100/barrel, Bitcoin is hovering just above $73,000.

Around the watercooler

The $265 billion private credit meltdown: How Wall Street’s hottest investment craze turned into a panic by Shawn Tully

‘Peak war panic’ will likely hit financial markets in 1-3 weeks, strategist predicts, as Trump says he doesn’t want to make a deal with Iran yet by Jason Ma

How Nasdaq CEO Adena Friedman found her ideal job: ‘I realized I liked risk-taking more than risk management’ by Sheryl Estrada

After 93 years and a 25-hour filibuster, Washington finally has an income tax, and billionaires are already packing their bags by Catherine Gioino

Americans are demanding refunds from the $180 billion in tariffs they paid for, and they’re suing companies like Costco to make it happen by Sasha Rogelberg

‘Raise a lobster’: How OpenClaw is the latest craze transforming China’s AI sector by Nicholas Gordon

Today's edition of CEO Daily was compiled and edited by Joey Abrams, Nicholas Gordon and Lee Clifford.

Diane Brady writes about the issues and leaders impacting the global business landscape. In addition to writing Fortune’s CEO Daily newsletter, she co-hosts the Leadership Next podcast, interviews newsmakers on stage at events worldwide and oversees the Fortune CEO Initiative. She previously worked at Forbes, McKinsey, Bloomberg Businessweek, the Wall Street Journal, and Maclean's. Her book Fraternity was named one of Amazon’s best books of 2012, and she also co-wrote Connecting the Dots with former Cisco CEO John Chambers.

World’s Most Admired Companies

Frequently Asked Questions

Customer Service Portal

Single Issues For Purchase

Diversity And Inclusion

Diversity And Inclusion

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.

© Fortune