The United States Might Settle for Less Than Regime Change in Cuba |
Get audio access with any FP subscription. Subscribe Now ALREADY AN FP SUBSCRIBER? LOGIN
Get audio access with any FP subscription.
ALREADY AN FP SUBSCRIBER? LOGIN
Ongoing reports and analysis
Will the Trump administration settle for a deal with Cuba that opens up key sectors of the economy to U.S. investors, including Cuban Americans? Or will it demand political concessions amounting to regime change? An economic deal is within the realm of possibility, since the Cuban government has been slowly—too slowly—moving in that direction already. But allowing the United States to dictate the shape of Cuba’s political future is almost certainly a bridge too far for Havana.
A purely economic deal would be a surprise, given the hard-line position of U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who has said for years that the government in Havana must go. But recent statements by him and other Trump officials as well as reports about negotiations underway suggest that the administration might settle for something less than regime change—just as it has in Venezuela. The New York Times reported on Tuesday that Washington is pressing for the replacement of Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel with someone more open to economic reform, an essentially symbolic gesture that would leave the rest of the regime intact.
Will the Trump administration settle for a deal with Cuba that opens up key sectors of the economy to U.S. investors, including Cuban Americans? Or will it demand political concessions amounting to regime change? An economic deal is within the realm of possibility, since the Cuban government has been slowly—too slowly—moving in that direction already. But allowing the United States to dictate the shape of Cuba’s political future is almost certainly a bridge too far for Havana.
A purely economic deal would be a surprise, given the hard-line position of U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who has said for years that the government in Havana must go. But recent statements by him and other Trump officials as well as reports about negotiations underway suggest that the administration might settle for something less than regime change—just as it has in Venezuela. The New York Times reported on Tuesday that Washington is pressing for the replacement of Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel with someone more open to economic reform, an essentially symbolic gesture that would leave the rest of the regime intact.
Díaz-Canel confirmed on March 13 that Cuba and the United States have been engaged in conversations “aimed at seeking solutions through dialogue to the bilateral differences that exist between the two nations” and “to identify areas of cooperation.” He did not specify any points of agreement yet or what specific issues are on the table, noting that “we are in the initial phases of this process.”
The day before, Cuba announced the impending release of 51 prisoners, facilitated by the Vatican—a gesture that has frequently accompanied talks between Havana and Washington. In his press conference,........