The World Minus One Will Be a Mess |
Ongoing reports and analysis
Last week, President Donald Trump announced his intent to withdraw the United States from 66 separate multilateral forums. He has retracted billions of dollars in spending for international organizations; pulled back from the United Nations; withdrawn from global climate talks as well as the World Health Organization (WHO), UNESCO, the U.N. Human Rights Council, and more; and paused funding for the World Trade Organization (WTO). The recent announcement added a slew of U.N. subsidiaries and international consortia to the dustbin of Washington’s multilateral engagement. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is building a reputation as a global spoiler, bending norms against the use of force to the breaking point, threatening the essence of NATO with its designs on the Danish territory of Greenland, and scuttling consensus on global agreements on ship pollution and ocean plastics.
In a recent piece in Foreign Policy titled “The World-Minus-One Moment,” Amitav Acharya optimistically argued that the global community should keep calm and carry on, working together to assure that multilateralism survives Trump’s assault. Acharya paints a rosy scenario of an order that emerges stronger from beneath the foot its longtime hegemon. Sadly, this is unlikely to happen. The Trump administration’s unceremonious exit comes at a time when the multilateral system faces its own pressures: outdatedness and a chronic failure to reform, entrenched hostility among great powers, seismic technological change, and a mismatch between mission and resources. Against that backdrop, where multilateralists such as Acharya envision the rise of “the Rest,” we are instead more likely to see a mix of zombie multilateralism and the dawning of a Chinese Century.
Last week, President Donald Trump announced his intent to withdraw the United States from 66 separate multilateral forums. He has retracted billions of dollars in spending for international organizations; pulled back from the United Nations; withdrawn from global climate talks as well as the World Health Organization (WHO), UNESCO, the U.N. Human Rights Council, and more; and paused funding for the World Trade Organization (WTO). The recent announcement added a slew of U.N. subsidiaries and international consortia to the dustbin of Washington’s multilateral engagement. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is building a reputation as a global spoiler, bending norms against the use of force to the breaking point, threatening the essence of NATO with its designs on the Danish territory of Greenland, and scuttling consensus on global agreements on ship pollution and ocean plastics.
In a recent piece in Foreign Policy titled “The World-Minus-One Moment,” Amitav Acharya optimistically argued that the global community should keep calm and carry on, working together to assure that multilateralism survives Trump’s assault. Acharya paints a rosy scenario of an order that emerges stronger from beneath the foot its longtime hegemon. Sadly, this is unlikely to happen. The Trump administration’s unceremonious exit comes at a time when the multilateral system faces its own pressures: outdatedness and a chronic failure to reform, entrenched hostility among great powers, seismic technological change, and a mismatch between mission and resources. Against that backdrop, where multilateralists such as........