How to Keep Gaza’s Recovery From Becoming an 80-Year Project |
When wars end, attention must turn to what comes next: the daunting work of rebuilding. In Gaza, that effort will be at the scale of European cities ruined during World War II or Iraqi and Syrian cities laid waste in the war against the Islamic State.
A precarious cease-fire and the 20-point peace framework have stirred hope, but this is also a moment for sober realism. The destruction in Gaza is staggering: Approximately 70 percent of all buildings are damaged or destroyed, 90 percent of residents have been displaced, and essential infrastructure is devastated. With entire neighborhoods flattened, hospitals and schools unusable, and utilities barely functioning, Gaza will need to be rebuilt almost from its foundations at an estimated cost of more than $70 billion.
When wars end, attention must turn to what comes next: the daunting work of rebuilding. In Gaza, that effort will be at the scale of European cities ruined during World War II or Iraqi and Syrian cities laid waste in the war against the Islamic State.
A precarious cease-fire and the 20-point peace framework have stirred hope, but this is also a moment for sober realism. The destruction in Gaza is staggering: Approximately 70 percent of all buildings are damaged or destroyed, 90 percent of residents have been displaced, and essential infrastructure is devastated. With entire neighborhoods flattened, hospitals and schools unusable, and utilities barely functioning, Gaza will need to be rebuilt almost from its foundations at an estimated cost of more than $70 billion.
Reconstruction, of course, cannot begin until political and security obstacles are addressed. Neither Israel nor Hamas have shown a genuine commitment to rebuilding Gaza or enabling the governance arrangements that such an effort would require. Yet even as these issues remain unresolved, it is time to think through the measures needed for recovery itself.
If the international community and regional actors approach Gaza’s recovery without a common vision, realistic timelines, and insufficient planning, it will fail. But if planners, financiers, and governments can coordinate from the outset, then the physical reconstruction of Gaza will be a vital piece in creating the conditions for enduring stability. The way Gaza rebuilds in the next several years will determine whether this moment can break the region’s long cycle of violence or become yet another false dawn.
The war in Gaza has devastated Palestinian heritage—the physical landscape is so damaged that many Palestinians may no longer recognize their homeland. And while it is important to recognize what is lost and acknowledge that it cannot be fully recovered, moving forward may require seeing this moment as an opportunity to start anew and reimagine the territory’s infrastructure altogether.
RAND, where I work, has developed a spatial vision for Gaza and the West Bank in collaboration with Israeli, Palestinian, and U.S. planners that considers infrastructure and institutional needs across six sectors: transportation, energy, water, urban design, governance, and the environment. Our work shows that Gaza can be reconstructed not merely to restore what was lost, but to become a modern, sustainable region serving its residents, contributing to the regional economy, and perhaps even attracting future tourism. Gaza’s cities could join other great economic powerhouse cities of the Middle East, such as Amman, Dubai, Muscat, and Tel Aviv. Such a vision could turn Gaza from a symbol of ruin into a model for regional renewal.
Yet even with........